Christmas consumer bump for ASX as oil uncertainty weighs heavy

Strong consumer stocks have negated sell-offs in the energy sector as the ASX200 squeaked in a small gain in Monday trading.

There were also boosts in gold as China’s central bank announced a resumption of bullion purchasing after a six-month pause.

The ASX200 closed up 0.03 per cent to 8423, following Wednesday’s record high. Eight of the 11 sectors finished up.

The energy sector saw a 1 per cent loss as only two of the 10 biggest companies on the bourse closed in the green.

Discretionaries gained 0.64 per cent and telcos and healthcare gained about one third of a percentage point each.

Morgan Stanley issued advice saying buyers should snap up the Australian dollar and jettison the greenback over fears the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates harder than anticipated, while Trump tariff concerns are overblown in the US firm’s opinion.

The Morgan Stanley guidance is at odds with CommBank and NAB’s warnings the Aussie dollar could fall below US60 cents next year.

“The US dollar and gold typically have an inverse relationship because a stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for non‑US consumers and investors,” CommBank mining commodities research director Vivek Dhar said.

Australia’s biggest bank has recently flipped its forecasts on the greenback, from an 8 per cent fall by the end of next year to a peaking 4 per cent gain in the third quarter; primarily tied to President Trump’s proposed tariffs.

But it was other heavyweight economies which put a dampener on the Australian market on Monday.

Two weeks of declining oil prices and Saudi Arabia lowering its prices to Asia more than expected, raising concerns about OPEC output, leading to dips for Woodside (down 1.1 per cent) and Santos (0.7 per cent).

The toppled Syrian regime will also have ramifications for oil markets. Ampol was one of the heaviest losers among the big players, falling 1.9 per cent.

Iron ore prices fell more than 1 per cent in Singapore. Fortescue followed suit with a 1.2 per cent loss.

In the financials sector, multinational Australian-based Platinum Asset Management tanked 14.3 per cent to $0.89 as potential takeover buyers Regal Partners walked away.

Woolworths revealed the sales lost from warehouse workers striking has been at least $140m, almost triple expectations. Nonetheless the supermarket’s share price gained 1 per cent.

Discretionary gains were driven by Breville gaining 2.9 per cent and Aristocrat Leisure picking up 1.9 per cent. Wesframers and JB Hi-Fi finished up 0.7 and 0.4 per cent.

The telco sector was another strong performer, as the listed broadband provider Superloop announced it will buy Optus subsidiary Uecomm for $17.5m, acquiring more than 2000 kilometres of high-capacity fibre cables.

Superloop’s network runs across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and the company also picks up more than 1900 buildings and about 50 data centres. Superloop’s share price rose 1.7 per cent to $2.30.

And in Queensland, the new government dealt Star Casino a face card and a six; suspension of The Star Gold Coast’s licence has been deferred from December to March 31, and the special manager’s appointment has also been extended to June 30.

Star’s share price reached a record low before lunch and ticked up a smidgen to close with a 2.5 per cent loss.

On Wall Street the S&P 500 gained 0.2 per cent, besting its all-time high from a week ago. The Nasdaq gained 0.8 per cent for its own record and the Dow Jones fell 0.3 per cent.

The ASX has priced in a 91 per cent chance the cash rate is held at 4.35 per cent by the RBA, as the board holds its final meeting of the year on Tuesday.