Retail sales grow 2.3 per cent in year to September, ABS data shows

Australians were dining out and buying more hardware in September as retail sales grew at 2.3 per cent annually.

About $36.5 billion moved through the nation’s tills in the month.

Sales were up 0.1 per cent month-to-month after a very strong August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed on Thursday.

That was below the market consensus pace of 0.3 per cent.

“After a boost last month from warmer-than-usual weather, retail spending held firm in September,” ABS head of business statistics Robert Ewing said.

Consumers were buying more household goods and increased spending on cafes, restaurants and take away. But spending on department stores and clothes fell in the month.

“The rise in household goods was led by Western Australian spending on hardware and gardening items after unseasonal rainfall last month reduced sales,” Mr Ewing said.

ANZ predicted spending would be strong for Black Friday and Boxing Day sales.

“It appears the combined impact of cost-of-living relief, moderating inflation and tax cuts is flowing through to a modest pickup in aggregate spending,” a report authored by ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said.

“Our ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence measure continues to trend upwards, albeit at a gradual pace.

“That in turn suggests an elongated recovery in spending growth from here.”

Australians have had their disposable income boosted by the stage three income tax cuts this financial year, but the data has so far showed most are saving the cash rather than spending.

AMP economist My Bui said “clearly people haven’t splurged their tax cuts on goods and services”.

She said spending volume per person — which adjusts for price changes — had fallen for the ninth straight quarter, meaning overall sales figures were mostly only going upwards due to rising prices and population growth.

Retailers have also been under pressure as consumers tighten their belts amid a cost-of-living crunch and from the elevated interest rates needed to fight that crisis.

The pace of sales growth has slowed considerably since the inflation-era boom through to 2022, when spending was artificially boosted by emergency low interest rates and rocketing government largess.

Thursday’s sales data will be unlikely to significantly shift the Reserve Bank’s position on interest rates as it focuses on fighting inflation and keeping the jobs market strong.

But the numbers give a forward indicator of where the economy might be heading.