Cyclone threat looms as Bureau of Meteorology forecast shows potential for damaging storms across northern Queensland and northern WA
A cyclone threat looms in northern Australia as a drenched region braces for yet more rain after a “remarkable” deluge.
North Queensland is on cyclone watch with three tropical lows a chance of developing in the coming days, bringing heavy rain that has flooded roads and homes.
Systems lie off Cairns and the Gulf of Carpentaria with another set to intensify in the Coral Sea near Vanuatu.
Remarkably another two tropical lows lie off Western Australia’s north coast, with one potentially forming a cyclone by Sunday.
It has ensured a wet week for north Queensland with no relief in sight.
“There are not one, not two but three tropical low pressure areas in the vicinity of north Queensland through Friday and the weekend,” the Bureau of Meteorology’s Angus Hines said.
“Depending on the movement of these lows it’s going to shift...areas of heavy rain — that’s going to determine who in north Queensland gets the heaviest falls in the coming days.”
The low off Cairns is set to move north on Friday after ensuring rain had lashed the region for days.
The cyclone risk it poses has been downgraded after being rated a “low” chance of intensifying.
But the system is set to inflict more damage on the north with heavy rain likely between Cairns and Townsville through to the weekend.
“That’s going to become slow moving, continuing to pump a lot of wet weather onto that part of the coastline,” Hines said.
“That could easily be 500mm for isolated locations on top of the rain that they’ve already received earlier this week.”
He predicted it would cause more flooding and road closures, potential power network stress and crop damage for an already saturated region.
“Through the week so far the rainfall numbers have been fairly remarkable,” Hines said.
Up to 939mm of rain over seven days was recorded at Mount Sophia and 905mm at Clyde Road, both near Cairns, with more than 600mm at other locations.
Flood watches have been activated for rivers from Cairns to Townsville.
The low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a chance of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday.
It is forecast to cross the Queensland coast over the weekend, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding between Townsville and Cairns.
The low expected in the Coral Sea is a “moderate” chance of forming a cyclone by Sunday.
Only one of the two systems off WA’s northwest coast are expected to intensify by the weekend but it was not expected to directly affect coastal or island communities, the bureau said.
Earlier this week, BOM senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury told 7NEWS.com.au the systems were at risk of developing into devastating storm cells.
“(The WA low is) well offshore, unlikely to impact mainland Australia,” Bradbury said.
“At this stage, we’ve got no high chance of (it) becoming a tropical cyclone.
“It’s still about a week away that these systems really start to ramp up.”
These three lows have the greatest likelihood out of the five to develop into a tropical cyclone, however this is dependent on several factors, such as how warm the sea surface temperature is.
“There are obviously certain atmospheric parameters that help them or suppress them,” Bradbury said.
“It’s so dependent on all of these different factors, there are still a number of ways this could play out. So it’s really just keeping an eye on them.
“We have a dedicated cyclone team and that’s their whole job, to make sure that we’re as up-to-date as possible.”
The only two lows that could impact mainland Australia are the ones in the Coral Sea off northern Queensland.
The overall cyclone risk in Australia is expected to ramp up when monsoon season hits northern Australia sometime next week.
According to Bradbury the monsoon trough usually sits horizontally over the tropics near Indonesia but that usually between December to January, the trough directs moisture down to northern parts of Australia.
“It means there’ll be more shower activity, more rain, more thunderstorms,” she said.
Bradbury said it wasn’t uncommon to see multiple systems potentially develop at once, however she did say that five was “a lot”.
“I wouldn’t say it’s unheard of, but I guess the thing to remember is that just because there’s a potential for all five to develop doesn’t necessarily mean five will develop, and certainly not that all five would become cyclones.
“Five cyclones at once for the Australian region would be highly unusual.”
Those who live in the parts of northern Australia where the five lows are developing have been urged to keep an eye on the tropical cyclone forecast throughout the week.
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