Climate change: Labor on track to hit 2030 target as Chris Bowen heralds ‘pragmatic’ approach to energy shift

The Federal Government is on track to hit its 2030 emissions reduction target, according to new modelling that minister Chris Bowen will use to defend Labor’s “pragmatic” climate policies.

Mr Bowen’s annual climate statement on Thursday will reveal Australia is projected to cut emissions 42.6 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 – just shy of Labor’s 43 per cent target.

The latest “baseline” forecast from the Department of Climate Change and Energy represents a significant improvement from 12 months ago, which showed pollution was on track to fall 37 per cent by the end of the decade.

The passage of laws to introduce vehicle efficiency standards to accelerate the shift to electric cars from January 1 and the expanded capacity investment scheme are the major factors behind the fall.

The progress will strengthen the case for Labor to commit to an ambitious 2035 target, which it is almost certain to hold off on announcing until after next year’s Federal election.

Mr Bowen has faced heavy criticism in the portfolio as household struggles with high power prices and doubts grow as to whether Labor can achieve its 82 per cent renewables target and net zero by 2050.

In a statement, the minister said the latest forecast showed the Federal Government’s approach was working.

“Our robust reforms and pragmatic policies are delivering what we’ve always said – Australia’s 43% target is ambitious but achievable,” Mr Bowen said.

“We know action on climate change is not only a moral imperative but critical for Australian industries to remain competitive, create jobs in the regions and export clean energy to the world.”

The new figures will show Labor’s proposed tax breaks for critical minerals processing and green hydrogen production will only play a tiny role in cutting Australia’s carbon footprint, with emissions forecast to fall 42.7 per cent – or just 0.1 per more – when those policies are factored in.