German conservatives win vote, but far-right AfD surges

Germany's conservative leader Friedrich Merz who is on track to become the next chancellor, has again ruled out co-operating with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

After Sunday's election Merz's conservative alliance - made up of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union (CSU) - is far ahead on around 28.5 per cent according to initial projections, with the AfD second on around 20 per cent.

Speaking on a post-election program featuring Germany's top political leaders, Merz repeated his insistence that he would not form a coalition with the AfD.

Merz has been adamant in that stance, but has nonetheless faced repeated speculation that he might break his word and make a deal.

"I will endeavour to form a federal government that represents the entire German population. And I will endeavour to form a federal government that solves our country's problems," said Merz.

Outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz meanwhile said that it had not been a mistake to be put himself up for re-election after a difficult term in office.

(SPD) tumbled to their worst result since World War II, with 16.5 per cent of the vote shareThe Greens were on 12 per cent while the FDP hovered around the five per cent threshold to enter parliament.

A late campaign surge by the far left Die Linke party gave it nine per cent of the vote while breakaway leftist party BSW led by Sahra Wagenknecht squeezed in on five per cent.

The results set the stage for protracted coalition talks and likely mean a three-way coalition made up of one or two of the three same parties that were part of Scholz's unpopular alliance that collapsed in November.

Merz, 69, has no previous government experience but has promised to provide greater leadership than Scholz and to liaise more with key allies, restoring Germany to the heart of Europe.

A brash economic liberal who has shifted the conservatives to the right, he is considered the antithesis of former conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years.

Short of a majority in an increasingly fragmented political landscape, however, his conservatives will have to sound out partners to form a coalition.

Those negotiations are certain to be tricky after a campaign which exposed sharp divisions over migration and how to deal with the AfD in a country where far-right politics carry a particularly strong stigma due to its Nazi past.

That could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe's largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

It would also create a leadership vacuum in the heart of Europe as it deals with a host of challenges including US President Donald Trump threatening a trade war and attempting to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine without European involvement.

Germany, which has an export-oriented economy and long relied on the US for its security, is particularly vulnerable.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008.

Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its "Refugees Welcome" culture during Europe's migrant crisis in 2015, that the AfD has both driven and harnessed.

The election came after the collapse last November of Scholz's coalition of his SPD, the Greens and pro-market FDP in a row over budget spending.

The election campaign has been dominated by fierce exchanges over the perception that irregular immigration is out of control, fuelled by a series of attacks in which the suspected perpetrators were of migrant origin.

It has also been overshadowed by the unusually forceful show of solidarity by members of the Trump administration - including Vice President JD Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk - for the anti-migrant AfD, and broadsides against European leaders.

The AfD is unlikely to govern for now as all mainstream parties have ruled out working with it, though some analysts believe its strength could pave the way for an AfD win in 2029.

with dpa