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WA Election 2025: Labor tipped for a 2017-sized victory but the Libs are back

Roger Cook is on track for a comfortable election win, but Labor could lose a dozen MPs, according to a new poll that reveals a road back to relevance for Libby Mettam’s Liberals. The West Australian can exclusively reveal that Labor should be bracing for an almost 13 per cent swing against it in favour of the Liberals, according to the Demos AU survey of 1126 people. A 57-43 two-party preferred vote would put 11 seats within the Opposition’s reach: Churchlands, Warren-Blackwood, Nedlands, Carine, Bateman, Geraldton, Scarborough, South Perth, Riverton, Albany, and Kalgoorlie — where the Premier made an eleventh hour campaign stop on Thursday. That result would secure Labor a historic third term with 42 seats, one ahead of Mark McGowan’s first election victory in 2017, which was considered a landslide before his re-election in 2021 broke records. “Any government would be happy with 50 per cent plus one,” Mr Cook said on Thursday. “We’re not counting seats . . . We are not taking this election for granted, we are contesting every seat and we will work over the next 48 hours to make sure that we bring this election home.” A further four seats — Dawesville, Darling Range, Kalamunda and Bicton — could fall within the margin of error of the Demos AU poll, that was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday with voting under way across WA. Senior Liberal sources have told The West that internal polling puts them in front 52-48 in Dawesville, where former Liberal leader Zak Kirkup was unseated in 2021. Labor is tipping incumbent MP Lisa Munday can hold on, with a source claiming its internal polling has the Government ahead 54-46. Both major parties are expecting the swing will vary greatly from seat to seat, a sentiment backed by Demos AU head of research George Hasanakos “Swings aren’t necessarily uniform,” Mr Hasanakos said. “Labor will be hoping that its recontesting MPs in seats won for the first time in 2021, will have built a personal vote that may in some cases keep their seats against the State-wide swing.” Greens preferences are fuelling Labor’s high hopes of hanging on to South Perth, which has a 10.1 per cent margin. “We think we’re in the game for South Perth,” a Labor insider confirmed. Albany? “Close, but feeling more confident.” They said Kingsley will be tight. A primary vote of 43 per cent, predicted in the Demos AU poll, would represent a big fall back to earth for Labor from the record extraordinary record high of 59 per cent in 2021. The Liberal Party’s fortunes appear set to improve, with the survey showing it is likely to snare 30 per cent, an improvement of almost 9 per cent on its abysmal performance last time out. The Greens (11 per cent) and the Nationals (5 per cent) are also both predicted to enjoy an increased percentage of the vote. Although this obviously would represent a slide for Labor, it is still a 2 per cent improvement for the party on a comparative poll taken in November. And in a sign that Labor may have performed better on the campaign trial, the Liberals have lost 4 per cent of the vote since that survey towards the end of last year. Roger Cook is leading Libby Mettam 47-32 as preferred Premier, but 21 per cent of surveyed voters were still undecided — reinforcing concerns from party officials that people are disinterested in the campaign. However, Ms Mettam refuted that. “What Western Australians are talking to me about is that they want a government that is listening to them,” she said. “We are hearing it across the board.” Mr Cook rejected claims the loss of a dozen seats could undermine Labor’s mandate and justify Opposition attempts to block legislation. “I don’t have any expectations at all, I expect that this election will be a tight contest,” he said. “I’ll leave it up to the pundits and the commentators to decide the nature of the election victory or the election defeat. “That is up to the people of Western Australia.” More than 380,000 people had already cast ballots at pre-poll booths by 6pm on Wednesday. Posing for photos with supporters on board a train on the Mandurah line on Thursday, Mr Cook admitted his “nerves are high” and he hasn’t been sleeping much. He rode a train from Wellard to Cockburn, with Transport Minister Rita Saffioti, to spruik Labor’s cost-of-living measures including capped public transport fares. “And we’re not stopping there. WA Labor has a comprehensive plan to deliver cost-of-living relief to all Western Australians and, in this election, we’ve committed to another $1 billion to make sure that we take the burden off families that are doing it tough,” Mr Cook said. He listed a second round of student assistance payments and legislation to increase the threshold for first homebuyer stamp duty relief as his first priorities, if re-elected. But the Premier was again forced to defend the proposed Burswood street circuit, which Liberal Churchlands candidate Basil Zempilas labelled an example of wasteful spending “at the height” of a cost-of-living crisis. Mr Cook denied the $217 million election pledge has become an expensive distraction, after criticism from local mayors who said the community wasn’t consulted and doesn’t want it. “From time to time people say parties aren’t being upfront and that they’re hiding policies . . . we’re being honest with the people of Western Australia,” he said. “We believe bringing a motor sport street circuit, combined with an outdoor 20,000-seat auditorium, combined with a multi-purpose sporting facility for cycling will be a good thing to bring into the city. “Sandwiched between a football stadium and a casino, on the site of an old rubbish dump, it will activate that whole area. It will bring significant economic and recreational benefits to the community.”

The West Australian exclusiveWA Election 2025: Labor tipped for a 2017-sized victory but the Libs are back

exclusive
WA Election 2025: Labor tipped for a 2017-sized victory but the Libs are back