The biggest winners and losers of the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Pau Gasol. Anthony Davis. And now Luka Doncic.

The Los Angeles Lakers’ storied history of pulling off seismic blockbuster trades continued late Saturday with a monumental swap no one saw coming.

Doncic, the 25-year-old, five-time all-star guard, is headed to Hollywood. The 31-year-old Davis, who rode shotgun to LeBron James during the Lakers’ 2020 NBA championship and was just named to his 10th all-star team, is off to team up with Kyrie Irving on the Dallas Mavericks.

The stunning trade will see the Lakers send Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick to Dallas; the Mavericks send Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to Los Angeles; and both teams send additional capital to the Utah Jazz, and is rare on several fronts. Franchise players who are in their prime, such as Doncic, are rarely traded in the NBA. Top 10 players such as Doncic and Davis are rarely exchanged for each other. And longtime conference rivals such as the Lakers and Mavericks rarely do such big business together.

“It’s insane,” Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant told reporters Saturday. “It’s crazy. I would have never thought Luka Doncic would have gotten traded at his age. Midseason. The NBA is a wild place, man. If he can get traded, then anybody is up.”

More moves from across the league are surely coming in advance of Thursday’s 3 p.m. Eastern trade deadline, but here’s a look at the winners and losers of the Lakers’ latest superstar grab.

Los Angeles Lakers (winner)

The Lakers woke up Saturday with a pleasant present and a future full of major questions. They were good enough to sit in fifth place in the Western Conference standings, but had prevailed in just two playoff series since winning the championship in 2020. James just turned 40, Davis was approaching 32, and the organization seemed to have a bleak five-year outlook.

Even if they managed a playoff run this year, the James-Davis pairing no longer looked capable of living up to the franchise’s championship standard. True contenders typically rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense; the Lakers didn’t qualify in either regard. Meanwhile, James’s quality of play has understandably slipped this season and his uncertain retirement timeline looms over the franchise. If the Lakers kept running back James and Davis together, they were looking at the possibility of a painful rebuilding cycle once James decided to hang it up. Remember, the Lakers won 17 games in Kobe Bryant’s final season in 2015-16, then averaged just 33 wins over the subsequent three seasons before pairing James with Davis.

Rather than repeat that cycle or be stuck trying to land a star partner for an aging Davis sometime down the road, the Lakers boldly landed Doncic as the heir to James. Better yet, they did so while parting with only one future first-round pick, ensuring they will have tools to bolster Doncic’s supporting cast. By comparison, the Suns gave up four first-rounders to get Durant from the Brooklyn Nets in 2023, and the New York Knicks sent five to the Nets for Mikal Bridges this past summer.

To extract the maximum benefit from this deal, the Lakers must make it work well enough with Doncic that he is willing to commit to them with a long-term extension. That can be a delicate and dramatic dance, but it’s also one they’ve learned to master thanks to James.

Dallas Mavericks (loser)

The Mavericks made two decisions that will subject them to significant second-guessing: They gave up on Doncic less than one year after he led them to the NBA Finals, and they took back a veteran player rather than a bevy of draft capital.

First, it must be said that Doncic, who has been sidelined since Christmas with a calf strain, has dealt with consistent questions about his health, conditioning and temperament throughout his career. It also must be acknowledged that Dallas was staring at the possibility of paying him a five-year, $345 million extension this summer. At various points, he didn’t seem to mesh with former coach Rick Carlisle and former sidekick Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite those challenges, his supreme skills have carried the day. He has been an all-NBA first-team selection in each of the past five years, he led the NBA in scoring last year and he buried several clutch shots during Dallas’s Finals run. Whenever Nikola Jokic starts to decline, Doncic and Victor Wembanyama are the odds-on favorites to be the best player in basketball. Parting with that combination of established A-list talent and sky-high upside will be a bitter pill for Mavericks fans to swallow, especially if he thrives with the hated Lakers. Dallas lucked into a miracle by trading for Doncic on draft night in 2018, and now that miracle is gone for good.

Davis is one of the NBA’s most underrated stars. His vast two-way abilities have often gotten lost in James’s shadow, and he has been a consistent and healthy force over the past two seasons. He is a perennial defensive player of the year candidate and an easy player to build lineups around, and he is aligned age-wise with Irving. Davis should keep the Mavericks relevant and competitive in the challenging West for the foreseeable future.

But is that enough? Doncic offered the dream of a title to match Dirk Nowitzki’s 2011 masterpiece, and the Davis-led Mavericks can’t match that rosy long-term outlook. Davis was limited by injury issues in three of his six seasons with the Lakers, and it’s unclear how well his game will age as he gets deeper into his 30s given that he is not a three-point shooter. Dallas has now locked in with an expensive veteran core trio of Davis, Irving and Klay Thompson that would have been a lot more fearsome in 2018. If the Mavericks can’t muster another run this year or next, their lack of draft assets will keep coming back to bite them.

Luka Doncic (winner)

Before arriving in the United States, Doncic starred for Real Madrid, one of Europe’s most prestigious clubs. The Slovenian’s love of clutch moments and big stages is well documented, and he should be a natural fit as the face of the NBA’s highest-profile team. Indeed, the merging of Doncic and the Lakers sets him up to be the face of the league as he progresses through his 20s and James, Durant and Stephen Curry head off into the sunset.

Though the Lakers know how to cater to superstars, Doncic must understand there will be nowhere to hide in Los Angeles. In an ideal world, the heightened expectations will force him to get serious about his conditioning and grow out of his tantrums toward referees. If that’s how it plays out, he will have a shot at following Abdul-Jabbar, Gasol and Davis in adding to the Lakers’ banner count. Consider this, too: Doncic tends to play his best when he is trash-talking with rival fans or nursing a grudge, and a mid-career trade should provide him with years’ worth of ammunition.

Anthony Davis (loser)

Davis was reportedly blindsided by the trade, which is the latest reminder that the NBA is a cold and cutthroat business. Remember, Davis is a former No. 1 pick who signed a maximum contract extension in 2023. He is represented by Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, the most influential agent in the NBA and James’s longtime business associate. And his family recently had to evacuate his home because of the wildfires in Los Angeles.

Together, James and Davis won the 2020 title and reached the 2023 Western Conference finals, yet James typically received most of the credit. Playing with James meant Davis was perpetually cast in a No. 2 role and left out of MVP conversations that included fellow big men Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. Davis halfheartedly campaigned for himself for end-of-season awards and James had taken to referring to his teammate as the Lakers’ “best player” this season, but those efforts went widely unheard. As always, James was selected as a starter for the upcoming All-Star Game and Davis was merely a reserve.

If anyone deserved a heads-up about a career-altering midseason trade, it was Davis. Now, he must recover from an abdominal strain suffered last week and adjust to a new city, new teammates and a new coaching staff, all while knowing that Doncic left huge shoes to fill and that the clock is ticking on the Mavericks’ roster. That’s a tough spot.

LeBron James (winner)

James has played with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Irving, Kevin Love, Davis and Russell Westbrook, but Doncic might be his most talented teammate of his 22-year career. The two playmakers have long shared a mutual respect, and Doncic arrives as James’s ageless game has finally shown signs of decline.

This season, James has seemed intent on shifting more of the offensive responsibilities to Davis and Austin Reaves. Asking Doncic to carry an offense is simply asking him to do what he loves best. James should be able to maximize his efficiency in a complementary role, and their combined passing ability could produce some special highlights.

Perhaps most importantly, Doncic’s arrival should shift some of the focus off James’s retirement countdown. James and the Lakers needed a new narrative, and Doncic’s arrival fits the bill.

LeBron James (loser)

A partnership between James and Doncic sounds delightful on paper, but James has never truly played second fiddle during his career. There was a little give-and-take with Wade when they initially teamed up with the Miami Heat, but James’s talent won out. For the Lakers to thrive, James must be willing to cede center stage to Doncic and to think of himself as a counterpunch. Such a fundamental adjustment is much easier said than done after 22 years, even if a fifth championship ring looms as a juicy carrot.

The other, major short-term issue will be the Lakers’ defense. Davis was a critical linchpin, and backup centers Jaxson Hayes and Christian Koloko don’t bring much to the table. James could find himself playing more center in small-ball lineups if fortifications aren’t made before the deadline. As James and Paul process the fallout from this mega-trade, they should push Lakers General Manager Rob Pelinka to land a starting-caliber center for the upcoming playoff run.

Oklahoma City Thunder (winner)

Landscape-altering trades usually take a while to shake out. Three relevant datapoints: James didn’t win a title in his first season with the Heat, the Lakers didn’t win the title until the season after they traded for Gasol, and the Mavericks didn’t reach the Finals until Doncic and Irving had more than a year to jell. In the short term, Doncic and Davis must both get healthy, and the Lakers and Mavericks are both headed for significant transitions that could get crazier if they make more moves before Thursday’s trade deadline.

This immediate chaos favors the stable Thunder, which sits atop the Western Conference and is eying its first championship since arriving in Oklahoma City. While the Thunder owns the West’s best record at 38-9, three of those losses came against Dallas. In last year’s second round, Doncic’s Mavericks knocked out the Thunder in six games. What’s more, the Lakers’ physical front line of James, Davis, Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura and Dorian Finney-Smith could have posed some mismatch issues for the Thunder, which favors a small and aggressive style.

As it stands, the Thunder could realistically face both the Lakers and Mavericks during a run to the Finals. Instead of facing two teams with star duos that have made Finals appearances, Oklahoma City could get the benefit of catching - or dodging - both while their new headlining pairs iron out the inevitable wrinkles.

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