Flying is safer, but turbulence is a growing factor

Last year, 2023, was the safest year in the past five years for aviation in terms of the global safety rate, number of fatal accidents, total fatalities and fatality rate, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

Turbulence accounted for the most accidents, with some Asia-Pacific states attending ICAO’s Air Navigation Conference in Montreal, Canada in late August calling for more action to mitigate the growing safety risk.

ICAO’s Safety Report for commercial aviation in 2023 shows the fatality rate dropped to 17 people per billion passengers — down from 50 people per billion passengers in 2022.

The global accident rate decreased to 1.87 accidents per million departures in 2023, down from 2.05 in 2022. There was one fatal accident in 2023, in Nepal, which took the lives of 72 people, compared with 160 fatalities in seven accidents in 2022.

At the same time, passenger traffic increased to about 4.2 billion passengers globally in 2023 — up from 3.2 billion in 2022 — while flight departures increased to more than 35 million in 2023 (up from 31 million in 2022).

Turbulence encounters accounted for most accidents in 2023, followed by abnormal runway contact-related accidents, with these two categories representing half of all accidents.

One loss of control in-flight resulted in the fatal accident.

In terms of aircraft damage, two planes were destroyed during the year — one because of a loss-of-control-on-the-ground accident, and the other from a loss-of-control-in-flight accident.

A further eight aircraft sustained substantial damage from abnormal runway contact-related accidents.

Other categories contributing to accidents involved aerodromes, bird strike, ground collision, ground handling, system/component failure or malfunction, and wind shear or thunderstorm.

ICAO’s Global Aviation Safety Plan vision is to achieve and maintain zero fatalities in commercial airline operations by 2030.

Several Asia-Pacific states are calling for increased co-operation among states and industry to reduce the safety risk of turbulence. In a paper presented at the ANC by Japan and Singapore, and co-sponsored by the Philippines, Thailand, Airports Council International and the International Air Transport Association, the partners note a variety of methods exist and will continue to be developed to reduce the safety risk of turbulence, from passenger activities to the use of technology.

A presentation by the Republic of Korea also focused on the need to monitor turbulence safety risks and improve the collection and sharing of data.

While turbulence does not have a high death risk, it does feature prominently in accidents and serious incidents worldwide, according to Japan and Singapore, accounting for as much as 40 per cent of all scheduled commercial accidents in 2023.

Turbulence encounters have long been a leading cause of injuries in-flight, with evidence suggesting there may be more severe weather patterns brought about by climate change which could lead to more turbulence-related incidents. The paper highlights the May 2024 incident when a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence on a flight from London to Singapore, resulting in one passenger death and multiple injuries.

Japan and Singapore are calling on stakeholders to share experiences or best practices related to turbulence encounters; encourage states and operators to improve the availability of air reports and special air reports (which contain information about turbulence encountered which is transmitted to other aircraft by air traffic services); and calling on the scientific and meteorological community to investigate how to enhance clear-air turbulence forecasting models and narrow down areas of probability.

“More can be done to prevent injuries caused by turbulence through the sharing of real-time turbulence information to minimise turbulence encounters and to provide sufficient reaction time for the passengers and cabin crew to be secured,” the paper says.

Japan and Singapore are also requesting support for equipment and aircraft manufacturers and airlines to develop and adopt technologies such as doppler light detection and ranging, which can warn of turbulence ahead by detecting air current by emitting laser light and receiving scattering lights reflected from aerosol — fine particles such as water drops and dust — floating in the atmosphere.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency has demonstrated the use of Doppler LIDAR in a series of flight tests.

Other turbulence and weather awareness software tools are becoming more widely available on pilot electronic flight bag devices, such as the International Air Transport Association’s Turbulence Aware tool.

“Enhanced awareness is a key mitigation for reducing the outcome severity of turbulence encounters as it allows pilots to either take avoiding action or apply turbulence management measures,” the paper says.